Italian football is on a high. After years in the mires, more than partly brought about due to the calciopoli scandal of 2006, there is reason for hope. One aspect of this hope is embodied in the fact that the Serie A, for the first time since the mid-1990’s, has more representatives in the Champions League knockout stages than either England’s Premier League or Spain’s La Liga.

For a league that has fallen down the pecking order, evidenced by its drop to fourth place in UEFA’s coefficient ranking system – which sees Italy given just three UCL spots this season – it is a welcome change and one that perhaps reflects a changing of the tide. Well, maybe.

The first legs of the first knockout stage of the Champions League continued to justify such optimism. Aside from Inter’s defeat in Provence, Napoli and Milan recorded tremendous home victories. Most significantly, their wins were achieved against English teams who in recent years have held an indelible dominance over Italian clubs, particularly when they have played host to Italian opposition.

For this reason, despite their first leg successes, it would be foolish to think that Milan and Napoli’s progression to the quarter finals is a foregone conclusion. It’s anything but. And one only has to cast an eye over the record of Italian sides’ results in the Champions League when playing on English soil since 2006 to understand why.

And it reads as such; 2 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats. Such a record prompts caution rather than providing confidence ahead of Napoli and Milan’s ventures to London.

It may well be argued that neither Milan nor Napoli need to win in the second legs to progress. And, this is entirely true. A draw for both would be enough. But, as the record shows even drawing in England has often times proven too much to ask of the Italians.

Scoring goals has been a problem too for travelling Serie A clubs and scoring that all-important away goal will be the objective of Napoli and even Milan. But, with just eight goals accredited to Italian teams in England during this time it makes for a dismal scoring rate of just 0.5 goals per game. Away goals will come at a premium.

Contrast this to Arsenal’s scoring rate at home and Milan’s prospects of avoid defeat look dimmer. The Gunners have only failed to score once in their last 13 Champions League matches played at Emirates. In total they have claimed a resounding 38 goals making for a scoring ratio of 2.9 goals per game. They need to just better this average by slightly more than one goal and they could even the tie. This is presuming Milan are unable to score one of their own. Given that the Rossoneri have failed to score in a Champions League fixture in England since 2007, history-wise there is a good chance they may fail to do so again. Need it be mentioned that Arsenal are undefeated at home in Europe in these last 13 fixtures – they have only been held to a draw twice – and it goes without saying that Max Allegri should not allow for one bit of complaceny in his and his players’ approach to the game even with a four-goal advantage.

Chelsea have a relatively easier task than their London rivals if they are to overturn their 3-1 deficit against Napoli. They need just two unanswered goals against the Walter Mazzarri’s to progress to the quarter finals. They may not be the free-scoring machine that Arsenal are at home, however, scoring at an average of 2.25 goals they are not exactly prudish either. Similar to Arsenal they too have a great home record in Europe. In their last fourteen games at the Bridge they have been defeated just twice while they have only been held to d draw on two occasions.

Historically speaking, Chelsea and Arsenal should be odds on favourites to win their return legs against Napoli and Milan respectively. Italian victories seem unlikely while their chances of drawing are only slightly better. What seems most probable is that both Chelsea and Arsenal will score, the decisive factor will be just how many.

But, no matter what eventuates in the return legs of the round of 16, the achievements of Italian clubs in Europe this season have to be commended. And, should the return legs go in favour of Italy’s representatives, Inter included, their achievements will become monumental. History may dictate that this will not happen, yet, always at some point does the course of history alter and March 2012 could be when it does.

For a review of Milan’s eventual progress into the quarter finals, click here.

Frank Tigani

More Posts